Extreme weather events dominate the news but changing average weather patterns are proving equally devastating to poor and vulnerable people in climate hotpots across South Asia. About 19 million people in Sri Lanka today live in locations that would become moderate or severe hotpots by 2050. A new report provides the right data and climate simulations to help put in place incentives, policies and smart solutions to protect communities across the country.
In my view, climate change is a big problem that we are facing currently and it has hit Sri Lanka where it pains the most moving account remind us all that for so many, climate crisis is not a distant threat nor is climate change crisis just an environmental issue. Climate change is already destroying lives and effecting our stay on earth as it needs urgent action by everyone.
The report examines how 800 million people, or half the population of South Asia, could see their living standards worsen by 2050. While floods and other extreme weather events can have an immediate and terrible impact, rising temperatures and unpredictable precipitation.
"These weather events have one thing in common: they affect the lives of the poorest and most vulnerable the most" said Andrew Goodland, world bank program leader for sustainable development covering Sri Lanka and Maldives. Speaking at the launch of South Asia's hotpots he added: We need to both scale up actions and strategies to build a more resilient world, and target interventions to help the vulnerable"
"Sustainable development is the best adaptation strategy since it is associated with improved infrastructure, market oriented reforms, enhanced human capabilities, and stronger institutional capacity to respond to the increasing threat of climate change and natural disasters"
Muthukumara S Mani
(Lead economist in the office of the chief economist of the world bank's South Asia Region)
Climate Change and living stand of poorest
Changes in average weather unfold over months and years. In such hotpots, rising temperature and changing rainfall pattern can affect agricultural productivity, leave farming household floundering and drive mitigation. Simultaneously, a warmer climate can also increase the propagation of vector-bone and other infection diseases. In Sri Lanka, living standards could go down by around 5 percent and in the worst case scenarios may decline by around 7 percent.
There are two future climate scenarios, one that is "Climate sensitive" in which some collective action is taken to limit GHG emissions. The other is "Carbon Intensive" in which no action is taken. both scenario show rising temperature throughout the region in the coming decades but it's no surprise that the carbon intensive scenario is more worrying.
In Sri Lanka, the northern and North Western provinces emerge as the top two hotpots, followed by the main less densely populated North central provinces emerge as the top two hotpots, followed by the much less densely populated north central province. The highly urbanized and densely populated western province, which includes Colombo is also predicted to experience a living standards declines of 7.5 percent by 2050, compare with a situation without changes in average weather. This is a substantial drop, with potentially large implications for the country, given that the province contributes more than 40 percent of Sri Lanka's GDP.
Overall, the analysis concludes that Sri Lanka's average annual temperature cloud rise by 1.0 C to 1.5 C by 2050. Even if carbon emission reduction measures are taken as recommended by the pairs agreement of 2015. If no measures are taken average temperature in Sri Lanka could increased by up to 2.0 C.
Investing a sustainable development could build resilient
"We need to follow an inclusive growth path" here says Mohan Munasinghe, who was the keynote speaker at the launch. He drew on his experiences as vice chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the chairman of the presidential expert commission on sustainable Sri Lanka vision, saying, we have to make development more sustainable in a way that is climate proof and which integrates mitigation and adaptation.
It is important to development of resilience building efforts on the most vulnerable locations and population groups. "The report provide the right data to climate simulations to help us put in place intensives, policies, and smart solutions to protect communities across the country and boost their future development" said Anura Dissanayaka Secretary of Mahaweli Development and Environment Authority.
In particular the report explores how these strategies, already essential components of Sri Lanka's sustainable development program, could help buffer vulnerable communities. By increasing non agricultural jobs by 30 percent relative to current levels, Sri Lanka could reduce the living standers burden from 7.0 to 0,1 percent.
The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) of Sri Lanka has identified agriculture, fisheries, water, human, health, coastal and marine, ecosystems and biodiversity, infrastructure and human settlements as the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse effects of climate change. This plan provide the opportunity for all the stakeholders for developing policies, strengthening cooperation, institutional setup, resource mobilization, technology development and transfer, awareness and capacity building to increase resilience of vulnerable communities, areas and sectors in the country.
We need continue to fight for climate change require action as climate change is not stopping. Climate change will play a great role in break down the future of our children and grand children. If we take action today, while climate change will not go away. It is a important to have trans-formative collective action in all sectors. When we are together and united it is possible.
"Individual Action is possible when they are collaborative links"
About the Author: Ruwan Nishantha Gamage, Sri Lanka.
Climate activist and Co-Founder of "Solutions for Climate Change" network
